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Tuesday 10/04/2007

• MPC opt to keep rates on hold
• Sterling slips following MPC decision
• US job data surprises to the upside; unemployment falls
• Euro gathers pace on a falling dollar amid China worries
• BoJ leaves rates on hold at 0.5% as expected
• Oil hit hard as Iranian captive situation is resolved

US Dollar:

The dollar strengthened heavily in a thin market on Friday following stronger than expected Non-Farm payroll
numbers. 180k jobs were added to the economy, more than the expected 165k. In addition previous data was
revised upwards and the unemployment reading dropped to a six-year low.
Since then the dollar has been somewhat on the back foot with worries over further trade disputes with China
and the news that Iran can now produce nuclear fuel on an industrial scale, joining the ’nuclear club of nations’.
This morning the dollar is looking very weak trading up near 1.97 on cable and over 1.34 against the
Euro as the UK and Europe return to their desks. Very little data out today.

On hold at 5.25% was the decision from the MPC on Thursday. Unsurprisingly the pound dropped on the back
of this news as hedges against an early move were unwound. The pound dropped heavily against the Euro
with the yield advantage not widening. Obviously the decision now increases bets that the next move to 5.5%
will come in May.
Over the extended weekend there were one or two press articles of note: David Smith in the Sunday times
writes that he sees house prices showing signs of a slowdown however a shortage of properties may keep the
market underpinned. The Express sees a possible £450bln housing crash which seems unlikely.

Another good session from the Euro with Euro-dollar spiking back up over 1.34 which is showing signs of a
support level. The pound has failed to rally against the Euro despite a strong start to the morning from the
UK.
This morning industrial data from the Eurozone surprised to the upside adding further strength to an already
sturdy currency. Lots of member state data to digest throughout the day.

• Further weakness from the yen as the BoJ opt to leave rates on hold at 0.5% leaving money cheap to
borrow. Good news for the carry traders amongst us; commodity/high yield currencies are in decent
shape on the back of this news.
• The Kiwi, Aussie and Rand are looking very strong again on both carry trade activity and some strong
performances against the US dollar. This morning sterling is below 2.40 against the Aussie.
• Oil dropped sharply on the back of the release of the UK prisoners held by Iran and further good supply
news from the US. A floor looks to be in place with Iran announcing that it has enrichment technology.
This morning oil is $61.88.

Interbank foreign exchange rates:
Updated 10th April
G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR  1.9689
GB POUNDS / EURO  1.4667
EURO / US DOLLAR    1.3417
GB POUND / JAPANESE YEN 234.32
GBP/AUD 2.3895
GBP/NZD 2.7154
GBP/ZAR 14.0723
GBP/CHF 2.4019
GBP/CAD 2.2664
GBP/SGD 2.9818
GBP/THB 63.985
GBP/HKD 15.3796

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