Euro Pounds Brief Thursday 28th December 2006


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Thursday 28/12/2006


• Nationwide survey reveals UK house prices up again
• Rumours circulate of UAE diversifying away from dollar
• Stronger than expected housing data from US
• Euro notes in circulation exceeds dollar notes
• China speculates on US interest rate cuts in 2007
• Oil slide continues

US Dollar:


The dollar experienced a fairly quiet session with a lot of to-ing and fro-ing amid data releases and
market speculation.
The dollar initially sold off as rumours hit the market that the United Arab Emirates was diversifying its
reserves away from the dollar and into the Euro. Strong housing data from the States added some support
ahead of weekly jobless claims and consumer confidence data today.

Pound:


Sterling continued to gain support from the booming housing market as the Nationwide revealed in its
December survey that house price growth was 1.2% in December, an annualised rate of 10.5%. Average
UK house prices are now at £173,746, growing at £45 per day. Nationwide economists are still
looking for signs that growth will moderate in 2007 however recent interest rate hikes and affordability
may look to hold back the sharp rises we are seeing at the moment.

Euro:


A very quiet session in the Euro yesterday and overnight with very little data in the market and European
dealing rooms empty for the holiday season.
According to calculations by the Financial Times, the value of Euro notes in circulation is set to exceed
the value of dollar notes in circulation. The fast growth of the highest denomination note, the €500, has
raised suspicions that the Euro is popular amongst criminals.

General News:


• A senior Chinese central bank member yesterday said that the Fed is likely to begin cutting interest
rates in 2007 reinforcing the dollar’s downward bias and the Yuan's tendency to appreciate.
• The question still remains over the timing of the next interest rate movement with BoJ governor
Fukui stating that personal consumption is rising and that the bank will closely analyse future
data
• Despite many geo-political factors (UN sanctions in Iran, OPEC production cuts) that should raise
the oil price, mild weather seems to be holding the commodity back. Oil is currently trading at
$60.57.

Interbank
Updated 28th December
GB POUNDS / US DOLLAR 1.9574
GB POUND / EURO 1.4903
EUR/USD 1.3131
GBP/JPY 232.46
GBP/AUD 2.4860
GBP/NZD 2.7859
GBP/ZAR 13.6963
GBP/CHF 2.3989
GBP/CAD 2.2719
GBP/SGD 3.0067
GBP/THB 69.476
GBP/HKD 15.2114

 

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