Euro Pounds Brief Tuesday 28 November 2006

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Tuesday 28/11/2006


• Soft dollar theme set to continue
• US weakness based on fundamentals and consumer concerns
• German GfK consumer climate rises
• Equity markets slump
• BoE Lomax- ‘UK economy not overheating’
• Oil prices nudge above $60 on cold spell forecasts

US Dollar:


Dollar weakness continued through the day and overnight in Asia as dollar sellers dominated the market.
Fundamentals seem to be driving dollar negativity as the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank
are forecast to raise rates in the near future, whereas the Federal Reserve is forecast (by markets) to
cut rates. The most likely outcome is that the Fed will initiate a “perma-pause”. Today we have a
speech from Ben Bernanke which the markets will scrutinize for any hint over the direction of US rates
in the next 6 months.

Pound:


Rachel Lomax, who this month voted to keep UK rates on hold reiterated concerns that the UK economy
is not overheating and that there are no real signs of pressure in the labour market, while the CPI
(inflation) outlook is softer.

Euro:


Germany’s GfK consumer climate rose from 2.3% to 2.4% in December. Despite the apparent strength
of the euro, especially over the dollar, it is finding it difficult to gain ground over the pound.
Rates are expected to rise again in December keeping the euro on the front foot.

General News:


• Wall Street suffered its worst day in 4 months yesterday as the dollar plummeted and declining
sales at Wal-Mart fuelled speculation over the strength of the retail industry.
• US durable goods data is released this afternoon with the headline figure forecast to fall.
• Oil prices rose over $60 per barrel after forecasts of a cold spell in the US North East, added to
dollar weakness and Saudi warnings of possible production cuts.
• The FTSE has managed to open up this morning, shrugging off Wall Street’s losses last night.
The upward move comes as ITV released shock news that they had managed to poach chairman
Michael Grade from the BBC.

Inter-bank
Updated 28/11/2006
 
GB POUNDS /US DOLLAR 1.9447
GB POUND / EURO 1.4796
EUR/USD 1.3142
GBP/JPY 225.97
GBP/AUD 2.4972
GBP/NZD 2.8958
GBP/ZAR 13.9323
GBP/CHF 2.3440
GBP/CAD 2.1998
GBP/SGD 3.0163
GBP/THB 70.700
GBP/HKD 15.1151

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