Euro Pounds Daily brief Wednesday 22 November 2006

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Wednesday 22/11/2006


• UK exports show sharp improvement
• Housing bust ‘likely in next few years’
• US dollar drifts overnight
• BoE minutes released today
• Oil prices firm again eyeing US stockpiles
• Stocks still comfortable


US Dollar:


The dollar drifted lower overnight as traders trimmed positions heading towards this weeks US Thanksgiving
holiday and long weekend.
Selling pressure was also added by the White House cutting US growth forecasts from 3.6% to 3.1%
and by rumours in the Asian markets that Japan’s Ministry of Finance had been encouraging exporters
to sell dollar in favour of the yen. As yet these are unconfirmed but with liquidity thin, movements tend
to be exaggerated.


Pound:


A benign day yesterday with little data to drive the markets. The CBI released manufacturing data yesterday
showing a sharp improvement in the export market, helped by softer oil prices. The data suggested
that the BoE may have room for a rate hike in early 2007.
Today the BoE release minutes of their decision to bump interest rates up by 0.25% (0930 GMT). Eight
from nine members are expected to have voted for a hike with the known dove, David Blanchflower
voting to keep rates on hold, citing rising unemployment as a threat to the economy.


Euro:


The Euro held its gains over the yen as global selling pressure kept the Japanese currency under pressure.
With ECB members daily reminding the market that the bank needs to be vigilant against the threat of
inflation, selling the Euro seems unlikely.


General News:


• The FT this morning carries the headline “Housing Bust Likely in Next Few Years”. David Miles,
chief economist of Morgan Stanley delivers a report to Gordon Brown today outlining the possibility
of a slowdown in housing prices because current growth has grounded in unrealistic, double-
digit annual rises, driving consumer demand.
• Oil prices stabilised overnight as markets digested the news that production in Alaska had been
disturbed by bad weather. US stockpile figures are released this afternoon. In Asia trade oil is
trading $60.17.

Inter-bank
Updated 22/11/2006

GB POUNDS / US DOLLAR 1.9042
GB POUNDS / EURO 1.4796
EUR/USD 1.2867
GBP/JPY 223.59
GBP/AUD 2.4617
GBP/NZD 2.8379
GBP/ZAR 13.6495
GBP/CHF 2.3565
GBP/CAD 2.1805
GBP/SGD 2.9646
GBP/THB 69.626
GBP/HKD 14.8258
 


 

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