Euro Pounds Brief Monday 18/12/2006


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Monday 18/12/2006


• Dollar holds ground ahead of current account data
• Unexpectedly soft inflation data in US
• Bank of Japan begin rate meeting
• Trichet continues to urge vigilance
• Further strength in US stock markets
• Oil slightly lower on profit taking

US Dollar:


The dollar is slightly lower in Asian trade today after a strong rally late last week. Strong sales and job
data countered the softer than expected inflation data on Friday seeing the dollar rally across the board
against most major currencies.
US retail sales last week rebounded 1% and falling unemployment claims eased investors fears of a
hard landing in the US economy. Despite fairly benign inflation data the US is not expected to drop it’s
guard against further inflation with energy prices still fairly high.

Pound:


Sterling continued to hold ground on the back of last weeks jump in inflation. With both the CPI and
RPI jumping to 2.7% and 3.9% respectively the markets are now looking to the Bank of England to
move rates up again in early 2007. The figures may have been surprisingly high for speculators, however
they are not outside of the MPC’s predictions which also forecast that inflation will return to the
2% target in the early months of 2007.

Euro:


The Euro suffered late last week on the back of the dollar recovery and strong UK inflation. With no
change in the stance of the ECB it is difficult to see further strength apart from the closing yield gap
between the Euro zone and the US.
Trichet, in an interview with a German newspaper, continued to stress the need for vigilance in fighting
inflation and played down the effects if the forthcoming 3% VAT jump in Germany.

General News:


• The Bank of Japan have started their 2-day rate setting meeting with markets expecting no
change for December but looking for any clues of the timing of the next move from governor
Fukui.
• On Wall Street the Dow Jones Index powered to a new all-time high on Friday after the soft inflation
data. A strong close has prompted UK and Asian equities to open higher again this morning.
• Oil posted some losses on Friday on profit taking after a strong week in the energy market. With
OPEC signalling production cuts oil is now trading at $63.95.

Interbank
Updated 18th December

GB POUNDS /US DOLLAR 1.9557
GB POUNDS / EURO 1.4924
EUR/USD 1.3104
GBP/JPY 230.45
GBP/AUD 2.4965
GBP/NZD 2.8307
GBP/ZAR 13.6660
GBP/CHF 2.3852
GBP/CAD 2.2630
GBP/SGD 3.0153
GBP/THB 68.995
GBP/HKD 15.2085

 

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