Euro Pounds Daily brief Thurday 9 November 2006

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Monday 13/11/2006


• US dollar still trading near lows on China diversification
• UK markets prepare for BoE Inflation Report
• Aussie dollar weakens on Reserve Bank comments
• ECB explain 2006 rate hikes
• Gold prices trade higher on China talk
• Oil prices slide 2.6% on Friday

US Dollar:


The dollar was sold off again on Friday as China’s diversification rumors and Japan’s higher rates stance
weighed heavy on the markets. On Friday the dollar traded down to ten-week lows against the Euro
and dipped to eighteen-month lows against the Pound.
This morning’s early Asian trade has seen the dollar pick up some ground ahead of a very data-heavy
week. This week we have the FOMC’s minutes from the October meeting, Retail Sales, PPI and Inflation
figure.

Pound:


The Bank of England release their quarterly Inflation report on Wednesday and, despite the sharp pullback
in energy prices, the headline figure (released on Tuesday) is likely to be above the 2.0% target.
The headline figure increase has been well flagged by the BoE so should not surprise the market. Any
downside figures may well see the Pound come under pressure.
This week we also have a raft of data including manufacturing data and housing data, which is again
expected to post heady growth figures.

Aussie Dollar:


The Aussie dollar came under renewed pressure after comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia in
their quarterly statement.
The two main points were the expectations of the economy to moderate after the policy corrections of
this year and the expectations that GDP will fall due to the ongoing drought. Farm output could fall by
up to 20%. In early trade the dollar was close to the magical 2.50 level versus Sterling.

General News:


• ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet explained the ECB policy of 2006 pointing to money and
credit growth as the primary reasons for higher rates.
• Gold again traded higher as China’s diversification talks helped the price reach $630/oz
• Oil prices slipped 2.6% on Friday after market participants took advantage of the short-term
spike and took profits. Oil is still trading in a rut currently at $59.71.

GB POUNDS / US DOLLAR 1.9117
GB POUNDS/ EURO 1.4863
EUR/USD 1.2860
GBP/JPY 224.46
GBP/AUD 2.4957
GBP/NZD 2.8746
GBP/ZAR 13.8620
GBP/CHF 2.3656
GBP/CAD 2.1625
GBP/SGD 2.9750
GBP/THB 69.747
GBP/HKD 14.8800

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