Euro Pounds Brief Monday 12th March 2007


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Monday 12/03/2007


• Dollar boosted by strong payroll data
• Further ECB rate hike pricing seen in markets
• Fed officials warn on inflation
• UK housing market continues to grow
• Asian stocks begin the week on front foot
• Oil slumps on seasonal adjustment, onset of warm weather

US Dollar:

The dollar took some support from the payroll data released on Friday before coming under pressure from the
pound in Asian trade. The headline figure came in as expected however the revisions to last month’s figure
were very strong, a correction of 55k jobs was added to January and December.
Fed officials continued to bang the inflation drum over the weekend with Lacker and Kohn seen as the main
protagonists. One member did note that the sub-prime mortgage market may become a problem which may
be the reason behind the overnight softness. This week with confidence returning to the markets carry trade
should pick back up again so we should see the dollar climb against the yen.

Pound:

Sterling has opened strongly this morning catching a big bid against the dollar. The FT house price index
showed that growth was 7.6% in February, a figure which has remained virtually unchanged despite three
rate rises. Analysts are now looking to London for direction to see whether it will cool as with regional markets
or whether the frenzy will spill over into national markets.
Interestingly Liam Halligan of the Sunday Telegraph writes that the MPC will not hike further whilst global
stock markets remain jittery. Although we are a far cry from any cuts whispers have entered the market. PPI
data due out this morning which should see data solidifying.

Euro:

European fixed income markets are under pressure as the yield curve moves following the ECB’s fairly hawkish
press conference last week. There appears to be a touch of steepening as markets consider the possibility
of rates going above 4%.
The euro-dollar cross looks set for a quiet week with 1.31-1.32 the expected range. Again we should see
strength over the yen as the appetite for carry trade and yield returns to markets.

General News:

• Another solid session for stock markets in Asia as confidence returns following the mini-shockwave
that hit the equity markets following Chinese growth warnings. Should predictions materialise the yen
should weaken through the week as investors borrow from Japan to finance high yield purchases elsewhere
across the globe.
• Oil suffered over the weekend with the seasonal warmer weather approaching and a drop in demand
forecast as a result. Also OPEC are expected to keep supply volumes constant at their meeting this
month. This morning oil trades $59.90.

Interbank
GBP/USD 1.9384
GBP/EUR 1.4752
EUR/USD 1.3130
GBP/JPY 229.33
GBP/AUD 2.4752
GBP/NZD 2.7903
GBP/ZAR 14.1230
GBP/CHF 2.3875
GBP/CAD 2.2695
GBP/SGD 2.9587
GBP/THB 63.481
GBP/HKD 15.1402

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