The Bank of England MPC announce their interest rate decision for January at 1200 GMT.

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Monday 11/12/2006

• Positive data boosts dollar
• Non-Farm payrolls stronger than anticipated
• Treasury’s Paulson unconcerned about recent dollar slide
• UK Rightmove house prices show small dip in November
• Bullish close on Wall Street spills into Asia, UK
• Oil pushes lower in technical trade

US Dollar:

Non-Farm Payrolls were expected to add 100k jobs however the headline figure came out at 132k surprising
one or two market participants. After an initial dollar rally, the euro made a sharp recovery as
the bearish dollar sentiment continued.
Over the weekend US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson added strength to the dollar noting that he believes
‘very strongly that a strong dollar is n our nation’s best interests’ and ‘feels very good about the
strength of the US economy right now’. These comments adding weight to the argument that the Fed
are not about to cut rates.

Pound:

The Bank of England MPC announce their interest rate decision for January at 1200 GMT. in
November, house prices had grown 13.0% since December 2005.
With Producer Prices due out at 0930 GMT the market is looking for a drop as inflation worries ease.

Euro:

The Euro-dollar cross was hit hard on the back of Paulson’s comments with the low well into the 1.31’s.
With no data today but a host of ECB press conferences we should expect to hear the same lines as
always with ECB members ‘happy to remove monetary accommodation’ and that vigilance will be
needed to keep a lid on inflation.

General News:

• Oil producing countries have cut dollar exposure to the lowest in 2 years according to a report
from the Bank of International Settlements. With recent dollar declines OPEC have seen fit to
diversify dollar exposure to remove inherent risk from holding 67%.
• Wall Street closed strongly on Friday adding fresh impetus to Asian and the UK markets. With
the FTSE already showing gains of 13 points at 6174, M&A news appears to be dominating the
market.
• The UK is facing a ‘very high’ terrorist threat over the holiday period according to Home Secretary
John Reid. Reid noted on GMTV that the chance of an attempted attack is ‘highly likely’.
• Oil traded slightly down in early trade this morning hanging on to the $62 mark.

Inter-bank
Updated 11/12/2006

GB POUNDS / US DOLLAR 1.9557
GB POUND / EURO 1.4799
EUR/USD 1.3214
GBP/JPY 227.99
GBP/AUD 2.4927
GBP/NZD 2.8426
GBP/ZAR 13.8360
GBP/CHF 2.3520
GBP/CAD 2.2440
GBP/SGD 3.0190
GBP/THB 69.574
GBP/HKD 15.1980

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