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Wednesday 11/04/2007

• Dollar continues to fade on China worries and economy strength
• Fed officials see US slowdown; work still to do on inflation
• UK BRC rises at fastest pace in 11 months; strong Nationwide report
• Euro remains strong as FT reports ECB can continue to hike
• Yen suffers further on carry trade
• Oil stable ahead of inventories and Nigerian elections

US Dollar:

The dollar had another poor trading session yesterday failing to take back any ground lost after the weekend.
Cable crept steadily up through 1.97 and the euro continued to trade well into the 1.34 levels. The weakness
comes as concern still haunts the market that China may well retaliate to complaints by the US to the World
Trade Organization over copyrights and stop buying US Treasuries, or even worse start selling.
In addition two Fed officials warned of a slowdown in the US economy and with current high prices, the Fed
still has some work to do to control inflation. Fisher also noted that the US economy is running at full employment.
This evening we have the FOMC minutes for March.

Pound:

A strong performance from the pound this morning on the back of two bullish pieces of data. The sterling rally
kicked off on the back of strong British Retail Consortium (BRC) data for March showing that retails sales
grew at their fastest pace in 11 months prompting calls for a hike from the MPC to put a cap on spending. In
addition the Nationwide released yet another bullish housing report showing houses had increased in value
by about 10% in the last year and that confidence amongst shoppers rose to the highest in 4 months. This
continuing strong data is adding pressure to the MPC to hike in May given their reluctance to do so this
month.
As an aside the FT reports that the UK Treasury is set to announce a measure that will allow British-based
multinational companies to repatriate foreign profits tax free which has also helped the pound this morning.

Euro:

A fairly mundane Euro session yesterday with the major move coming against the dollar holding well above
1.34. A bullish report in the FT this morning has added a modicum of support noting that due to continuing
strength in the Eurozone the ECB can continue to raise rates throughout the summer without fear of a slowdown.

General News:

• The yen continued to trade lower as Bank of Japan members continued to talk down rates and carry
traders continue to borrow cheap money.
• The Aussie took further support from a strong employment figure. The strength seems to be primarily
against the US dollar with trade well above 0.82-a key support level.
• Oil held ground ahead of US inventories today with a further drop expected. In addition upcoming Nigerian
elections are keeping oil traders on their toes with supply uncertainties on any unrest. This
morning Texas gold is trading $61.91.

Interbank foreign exchange rates:
Updated 11th April
G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR 1.9794
GB POUNDS / EURO 1.4732
EURO / US DOLLAR 1.3431
GB POUND / JAPANESE YEN 235.86
GBP/AUD 2.3996
GBP/NZD 2.7170
GBP/ZAR 14.1443
GBP/CHF 2.4091
GBP/CAD 2.2695
GBP/SGD 3.0014
GBP/THB 64.452
GBP/HKD 15.4582

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