Euro Pounds Brief Wednesday 4th April 2007


 

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Wednesday 04/04/2007

• Sterling pares gains on Blair’s Iran comments
• MPC begin 2-day interest rate meeting
• Mixed US housing data confuses markets before payrolls
• Europe flat despite rising producer prices
• Reserve Bank of Australia keep rates on hold at 6.25%
• Oil slips on Iran and inventories due today

US Dollar:

A poor start for the US currency yesterday on Russian-based selling was quickly reversed as the cross failed
to make a sustained breach of 1.98. Following that the dollar mounted a small comeback. Yesterday afternoon
existing home sales jumped however new home sales showed a sharp drop which confused markets
somewhat. Following pressure on the dollar after the sub-prime mess was revealed the market looks to have
taken more strength from the positive data.
The US market should enter a holding pattern ahead of Non-farm Payrolls due out on Good Friday, Wall Street
is looking for an increase of around 133,000 jobs. Non-manufacturing ISM data is due this afternoon along
with factory data and mortgage approvals.

Pound:

The UK ticked off slightly yesterday despite opening strongly. Prime Minster Tony Blair caused the initial selloff
by reportedly saying that the UK is ready to ‘take a tougher stance on Iran’. This caused the pound to selloff
against the Euro and the dollar, away from the intra-day highs. Sterling should remain underpinned by
uncertainty over tomorrow’s MPC rate decision which starts today. Markets are torn between a 0.25% hike
and a no move; no move being slightly more favoured.
Overnight UK consumer confidence picked up again on rising house prices, plc dividends despite rising rates.

Euro:

A fairly flat day in the Eurozone despite data showing a pick-up in producer prices. The Euro-dollar looks
rooted above 1.33 and this morning Euro is trading around the 1.48 level against the pound. A German newspaper
did release an article hinting that tax income will rise on strong economic growth.
Plenty of PMI data out from member states this morning with a slight pick-up expected since last time out. In
addition we also have German factory orders which are expected to rapidly decline.

General News:

• The yen took another pounding yesterday with the return of sizeable carry trading on the back of further
BoJ comments that rates will rise slowly in conjunction with incoming data.
• The Aussie dollar remained stable as the RBA opted to keep rates on hold at 6.25% overnight with no
promises for the future path of rates and PM Howard noting that rates are still low, hence continued
Aussie strength.
• Oil dropped again with expectations that a diplomatic resolution with Iran will be found as the hostage
situation enters its thirteenth day. US oil inventories are expected to be flat to slightly down this afternoon.
Oil is currently trading $64.53.

Interbank foreign exchange rates:
Updated 4th April
G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR 1.9734
GB POUNDS / EURO  1.4797
EURO / US DOLLAR    1.3330
GB POUND / JAPANESE YEN 234.83
GBP/AUD 2.4289
GBP/NZD 2.7424
GBP/ZAR 14.1628
GBP/CHF 2.4102
GBP/CAD 2.2849
GBP/SGD 2.9915
GBP/THB 64.542
GBP/HKD 15.4163


 

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