The pound struggled to hold ground yesterday on the back of heavy selling against the soaring US dollar.

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Thursday 04/01/2007

• Dollar surges after manufacturing data
• Fed still concerned with inflation outlook
• German Jobless Rate adds fuel to recovery
• UK PMI eyed today
• Copper fell to 9-moth lows yesterday
• Oil falls again on US weather; stockpiles eyed

US Dollar:

The dollar surged yesterday on the back of strong manufacturing data released in the early afternoon.
After falling in early 2007 trade the dollar rebounded spectacularly as ISM index rose from 49.5 in November
to 51.4 in December.
In addition to the strong data the minutes of the FOMC showed that inflation is still the overriding factor
in deciding the future path of interest rates. Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow afternoon should give the
markets something to think about for 2007.

Pound:

The pound struggled to hold ground yesterday on the back of heavy selling against the soaring US dollar.
Against the dollar sterling fell by two cents during the day which saw follow-through selling against
other major currencies.
Today we have the release of services PMI, the M4 money supply and consumer confidence data. The
pound will be looking for positive data in an attempt to find some support.

Euro:

German Jobless numbers fell by 108,000 in December, an ‘extraordinary’ drop according to the Agency
which produced the figures. The German unemployment rate is now running at 9.8% underlining the
strength of the Euro zone's largest economy.
The data will give the ECB yet more ammunition in their fight against rising inflation.

General News:

• The Australian dollar gained ground in early trade this morning on local buying. After taking a hit
on the back of the US dollar strength the Aussie rebounded despite the continuing adverse effects
of the drought Down Under.
• Copper fell by 3.8% yesterday taking the price under $6000/tonne for the first time in 9 months.
The red metal has now fallen by 32% since May of 2006.
• Oil fell again yesterday with traders still citing mild weather in the US and demand for the falling
price of the commodity. After hitting lows oil is now trading at $58.38. This afternoon the US
releases its weekly stockpiles.

Interbank
Updated 4th January
GB POUNDS / US DOLLAR 1.9455
GB POUNDS / EURO 1.4805
EUR/USD 1.3133
GBP/JPY 232.24
GBP/AUD 2.4681
GBP/NZD 2.7705
GBP/ZAR 13.6891
GBP/CHF 2.3898
GBP/CAD 2.2814
GBP/SGD 2.9841
GBP/THB 69.70
GBP/HKD 15.1436

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