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Thursday 03/05/2007


• Sterling remains weak against the EURO
• Sterling strengthens by 0.25% the US DOLLAR overnight
• King says BOE must do whatever necessary to reach CPI target (Inflation)
• The outlook on U.S. employment conditions improved in April, according to the Monster Employment Index
• Mervyn King said the Central Bank should look for better ways to communicate - although not its bank rate forecasts.

US Dollar: - Various releases—13:30, 15:00 & 15:30

The services ISM is due for release today at 9.30am.This was weaker than expected in March, the lowest
reading since April 2003. Expectation are to show a modest improvement but markets will be closely watching
the new orders and employment components of the index. The US DOLLAR lost some ground against the majors ahead of key USISM Services and jobless claims data tonight and US Non farm payroll data tomorrow. The message, amplified in Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony and FOMC minutes, was that it will take more than economic softness to get the Fed to ease so long as inflation remains "elevated"
and that, in fact, the next move might be a rate hike.

Pound: - Service PMI (Apr)—09:30

Sterling moved down versus the US dollar and Euro following the release of soft UK lending data yesterday.
However this bigger than expected drop in mortgage approvals did little to change the view that interest rates
will move up next week, it did undermine expectations of a move to 5.75%, a further 25 basis points.
Speaking last night the BoE’s King commented on the need for greater analysis of money supply data in its assessment of the economy. The focus will be on the services sector this morning, with the CIPS survey due for release. It is expected to show that activity levels remain strong. Rapid growth in the supply of money and
credit in the economy may be a warning signal of inflationary risks, said Mervyn King. Mr King dismissed suggestions that the stability and strength of the UK economy since the MPC took the interest rate reins in 1997 was down to luck and insisted that Bank independence. We expect the services PMI (out at 9.30am) for the month of April to ease in April as concerns about higher prices and interest rates begin to feature more.

Euro: PPI data (Mar)—10:00

There is little sign of a let up in the robust pace of growth in the Euro zone economy, with the manufacturing
PMI remaining at elevated levels in April. The employment situation continues to improves with the employment component of the index rising to 53.3 from 52.9, its highest level since November 2000. The pick up in labour market conditions was borne out in yesterday’s official Euro zone unemployment report for March. Said Gregg Gibbs.

General News:

• UK mortgage approvals in March were revised slightly upwards and consumer credit data remained unchanged. The currency pressured the 1.9900 level again yesterday and looks to be struggling some what both against the US DOLLAR and the EURO.
• US treasury Secretary Paulson commented yesterday that it will take more than an appreciation in the
Chinese Yuan to reduce the trade deficit that the US currently holds with China
• German unemployment fell in April, this was less than expected (-9k against -40k)

Interbank foreign exchange rates:
Updated 3rd May
G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR 1.9917
GB POUNDS / EURO    1.4631
EURO / US DOLLAR    1.3609
GB POUND / JAPANESE YEN 239.24
GBP/AUD 2.4165
GBP/NZD 2.6963
GBP/ZAR 13.9007
GBP/CHF 2.4118
GBP/CAD 2.2046
GBP/SGD 3.0313
GBP/THB 63.670
GBP/HKD 15.5701

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